Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 26.714936 31.838429 37.443961 44.002021 51.432708 59.559513 69.087496
2025-07-27 19.719075 26.629570 34.914933 45.446203 58.332424 73.440491 92.335406
2025-08-03 15.603246 23.284253 33.174315 46.549928 63.849027 85.137398 112.950435
2025-08-10 12.222435 20.000639 30.682510 45.933994 66.608834 93.091227 128.934515
2025-08-17 10.079329 17.923798 29.328263 46.387631 70.441882 102.281279 146.618391
2025-08-24 8.269172 15.954239 27.756615 46.198793 73.158469 109.913568 162.402369
2025-08-31 6.547926 13.768281 25.504142 44.667344 73.696800 114.424103 174.004427
2025-09-07 5.623327 12.735762 24.865368 45.405751 77.433762 123.408371 191.956418
2025-09-14 4.572160 11.254473 23.269644 44.429024 78.445470 128.453108 204.490086
2025-09-21 4.020159 10.614200 23.000424 45.515364 82.601174 138.151839 223.913598
2025-09-28 3.156063 9.140422 21.035792 43.543644 81.756645 140.329224 232.449214
2025-10-05 2.849632 8.811333 21.136468 45.102640 86.624316 151.245870 254.123342
2025-10-12 2.481764 8.304726 20.917101 46.233598 91.127630 162.219459 276.962438
2025-10-19 2.186145 7.910524 20.883069 47.722685 96.369638 174.655780 302.620956
2025-10-26 1.904093 7.472887 20.687831 48.868718 101.059746 186.381104 327.568405
2025-11-02 1.541806 6.695308 19.630540 48.228649 102.551630 192.998332 344.802191
2025-11-09 1.308282 6.220430 19.170310 48.700016 106.005634 202.888336 367.415301
2025-11-16 1.077225 5.666249 18.427913 48.503800 108.197065 210.735613 386.994388
2025-11-23 0.826125 4.927809 17.095608 46.912273 107.661840 213.946260 399.197532
2025-11-30 0.709335 4.644395 16.874392 47.679702 111.598075 224.848490 424.124848
2025-12-07 0.553518 4.117034 15.900213 46.664565 112.012719 229.676917 439.225701
2025-12-14 0.483858 3.940826 15.872621 47.793615 116.673540 242.032756 467.067990
2025-12-21 0.350935 3.361015 14.549853 45.744209 114.847750 242.863720 475.693167